VOO vs SCHD: Growth vs Income in a Divided 2026 Market
VOO is the S&P 500 in a single ticker with a microscopic 0.03% fee and zero concentration risk in its structure—but its top 10 holdings represent ~38% of assets, mostly mega-cap tech that's struggling in early 2026. SCHD is a 101-stock dividend grower ETF yielding 3.37% and up 15.74% YTD as the market rotates away from growth into value—but it badly underperformed in 2023–2025 and will lose again if AI resumes leadership. SCHD wins in 2026 if the value rotation holds, but VOO is the better long-term core holding.
Data sourced March 2026. Verify current figures before making investment decisions.
The Verdict
SCHD is the contrarian play for 2026; VOO is the core holding for life. If you're a retiree or income investor with a 5-10 year horizon and believe the value rotation has legs, SCHD's 3.37% yield, lower P/E, and current outperformance (+15.74% YTD) make it the smarter tactical move. The energy and dividend-growth positioning is genuinely well-timed. But if you're 15+ years from retirement and can stomach volatility, VOO is still the better long-term decision: 14.15% vs 11.03% 5Y CAGR, microscopic 0.03% fee, Morningstar Gold rating, and the underlying S&P 500 remains the best large-cap proxy on Earth. SCHD's 2026 outperformance is real but reversible; VOO's long-term dominance is structural. Conviction: Buy SCHD now if you need income or believe value has turned. Buy VOO if you're a long-term accumulator and can ignore 2026 noise. A 60/40 split (VOO/SCHD) is also defensible for balanced portfolios.
Disclaimer
This analysis is AI-generated by BullOrBS for educational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial advice. BullOrBS is not affiliated with any financial publication, newsletter, or institution mentioned in our analysis. Always do your own research and consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Every stock we evaluated, and why most didn't make the cut:
Price $623.80 | AUM $1.51T | Expense ratio 0.03% (lowest in class) | Yield 1.12% trailing | YTD +0.67% | 5Y CAGR 14.15% | P/E 22.72–28.49 (sources vary) | Beta 1.00 (is the S&P 500) | Morningstar Gold rated | 503 holdings
Price $30.92 | AUM $84.03B | Expense ratio 0.06% | Yield 3.37% trailing | YTD +15.74% | 5Y CAGR 11.03% | P/E 16.20–18.04 (sources vary) | 101 holdings focused on dividend growers | Top sector Energy 22.15% | Outperforming massively in 2026 rotation
VOO vs SCHD: Head-to-Head Showdown
| Metric | VOO | SCHD | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Price | $623.80 | $30.92 | — |
| AUM | $1.51T combined (~$871B ETF) | $84B | VOO (scale) |
| Expense Ratio | 0.03% | 0.06% | VOO (lowest cost) |
| Dividend Yield (Trailing) | 1.12% | 3.37% | SCHD (+225 bps) |
| YTD 2026 Return | +0.67% | +15.74% | SCHD (+15.07 pts) |
| 2025 Total Return | +17.82% | +4.34% | VOO (+13.48 pts) |
| 2024 Total Return | +24.98% | +11.66% | VOO (+13.32 pts) |
| 5Y CAGR | 14.15% | 11.03% | VOO (+3.12 pts) |
| P/E Ratio | 22.72–28.49* | 16.20–18.04* | SCHD (cheaper either way) |
| Holdings | 503 | 101 | VOO (more diversified) |
| Top Sector Exposure | Tech ~31% | Energy 22.15% | SCHD (defensive) |
| Morningstar Rating | Gold | Unverified | VOO |
| Market Cap Concentration (Top 10) | ~38.4% | N/A | SCHD (lower risk) |
The Story
VOO's Problem in 2026: The S&P 500's top 10 holdings (NVDA 7.83%, AAPL 6.46%, MSFT 5.39%, AMZN 3.92%, GOOGL 3.32%, plus others) represent ~38.4% of the fund. These mega-cap tech names are down sharply in early 2026 as the Iran/Hormuz crisis and weak February jobs data triggered a flight from growth into value. VOO returned only +0.67% YTD while the broader market rotated. Its 1.12% yield provides minimal cushion against further downside.
SCHD's Sweet Spot in 2026: SCHD holds 101 screened dividend growers (10+ years of consecutive payments, ranked by cash flow strength, ROE, and dividend growth). Its top holdings—Lockheed Martin (5.02%), ConocoPhillips (4.56%), Verizon (4.49%), Chevron (4.47%), Bristol-Myers Squibb (4.23%)—are defensive, cash-generative blue chips. Energy is 22.15% and consumer defensive 18.57%, exactly the sectors thriving during geopolitical stress. YTD +15.74% reflects the value rotation perfectly. The 3.37% yield also provides real downside protection.
Long-Term Reality Check: VOO has beaten SCHD decisively over 2024–2025 (24.98% vs 11.66% in 2024; 17.82% vs 4.34% in 2025). The 5-year CAGR gap is even wider: 14.15% for VOO vs 11.03% for SCHD. This is not a secret—mega-cap tech leadership has dominated for years. SCHD's 2026 outperformance is meaningful but historically unusual. If AI adoption accelerates again, VOO resumes dominance.
Valuation & Yield: SCHD trades at a lower P/E than VOO across both sources (16.20–18.04 vs 22.72–28.49 — the spread varies by data provider, but SCHD is cheaper either way). That 225 basis point yield gap (3.37% vs 1.12%) is no joke for income investors or those nearing retirement. But it comes at the cost of lower total return (5Y CAGR 11.03% vs 14.15%).
Tax Efficiency (Canadian Context): Both funds are US-listed ETFs best held in an RRSP to avoid 15% US withholding tax on dividends. In a TFSA, SCHD's higher yield makes the ~0.5% annual withholding drag more painful. Neither qualifies for Canadian dividend tax credits.
VOO Current Price
$623.80
Screenshot (Investing.com, Mar 10, 2026)
SCHD Current Price
$30.92
Screenshot (Robinhood, Mar 10, 2026)
VOO Expense Ratio
0.03%
Screenshot (Robinhood/Investing.com)
SCHD Expense Ratio
0.06%
Screenshot (Investing.com/TradingView)
VOO Trailing Dividend Yield
1.12%
Screenshot (AAII)
SCHD Trailing Dividend Yield
3.37%
Screenshot (TradingView)
VOO YTD 2026 Return (through Mar 9)
+0.67%
Screenshot (Yahoo Finance)
SCHD YTD 2026 Return (through Mar 9)
+15.74%
Screenshot (Yahoo Finance)
VOO 2025 Total Return
+17.82%
Screenshot (Yahoo Finance)
SCHD 2025 Total Return
+4.34%
Screenshot (FinanceCharts/Yahoo Finance)
VOO 5-Year CAGR
14.15%
Screenshot (Yahoo Finance, as of Mar 9, 2026)
SCHD 5-Year CAGR
11.03%
Screenshot (Yahoo Finance, as of Mar 9, 2026)
VOO P/E Ratio
22.72 (Investing.com) or 28.49 (Robinhood) — sources conflict
Screenshot (Investing.com vs Robinhood — difference likely trailing vs forward or methodology)
SCHD P/E Ratio
16.20 (Investing.com) or 18.04 (Robinhood) — sources conflict
Screenshot (Investing.com vs Robinhood — difference likely trailing vs forward or methodology)
VOO AUM
$1.51T (combined Vanguard 500 Index Fund share classes; ETF wrapper alone is ~$871B)
Screenshot (Robinhood) — note: Robinhood reports combined fund AUM, not ETF-only
SCHD AUM
$84.03B
Screenshot (Robinhood)
VOO Holdings
503
Screenshot (data brief)
SCHD Holdings
101
Screenshot (Robinhood)
VOO Top 10 Holdings as % of Fund
~38.4%
Screenshot (data brief)
SCHD Top 5 Sector: Energy
22.15%
Screenshot (Mar 7, 2026)
SCHD Top 5 Sector: Consumer Defensive
18.57%
Screenshot (Mar 7, 2026)
Risks They Missed
- •The 2026 value rotation ends and mega-cap tech/AI resumes leadership—SCHD's YTD 15.74% becomes a short-term pop, not a trend. Historical pattern: SCHD lost to VOO in 2023 (+4.6% vs +26.3%) and 2025 (+4.34% vs +17.82%).
- •Energy holdings (22% of SCHD) are a tailwind now due to Iran/Hormuz tensions, but if oil prices collapse or geopolitical risk eases, that sector becomes a drag. Energy is cyclical and command-driven.
- •SCHD's 101 holdings are more concentrated than VOO's 503—higher individual stock risk. A major dividend cut by ConocoPhillips, Verizon, or Lockheed Martin (top 3 holdings) would directly hurt performance.
- •Interest rates remain elevated or rise further—higher yields make the 3.37% yield less attractive relative to Treasury bonds or money market funds.
- •An upcoming March 2026 index reconstitution in SCHD could reshuffle holdings in ways that reduce positioning tailwinds.
Catalysts
- •Persistent value rotation: If the market continues to favor dividend growers and defensive stocks over mega-cap growth in 2026–2027, SCHD extends its outperformance and compounds returns.
- •Energy sector strength: Continued geopolitical risk in the Middle East keeps oil prices elevated, supporting ConocoPhillips and Chevron (8% of SCHD combined).
- •Dividend growth execution: SCHD's screening criteria favor companies with track records of raising dividends. If these companies continue to increase payouts, yield and total return both improve.
- •Interest rate stabilization or cuts: If the Fed pauses rate hikes or cuts in H2 2026, dividend stocks re-rate higher as income becomes scarcer.
- •Valuation mean reversion: VOO's P/E (22.72–28.49) is well above SCHD's (16.20–18.04). If tech valuations compress toward historical averages, SCHD's 'cheaper' positioning adds to upside.
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